North Korea Summary
Apr 2, 2013 13:47:42 GMT -5
Post by Old Sarge on Apr 2, 2013 13:47:42 GMT -5
Folks, here's something for public consumption. The Regional Status and Official Responses sections are gleaned from open sources. The Analysis and Conclusions are my own.
SUMMARY:
On 02 APR 2013, we collected additional information regarding the tensions involving US forces in South Korea.
Open source reporting via multiple sources (NBC/Fox, Xinhua, Pravda, and other news and Web sources) mentioned further tense rhetoric from North Korea, as well as reactions from interested powers including the PRC and USA.
REGIONAL STATUS:
The ROK and USFOR Korea are currently conducting Exercise FOAL EAGLE.
USFOR KOREA is offline and unavailable for reporting. USAG JAPAN is currently at FPCON ALPHA (Normal Ops).
Additional US Navy and USAF assets have been moved since last reporting. USS McCain (DDG-56) has been transferred from Yokosuka to station off Korea. Two F-22 Raptors have been transferred to Osan Air base in Korea, and are on "static display" while FOAL EAGLE is ongoing.
(NOTE: USS McCain, a Burke-class destroyer, is an Aegis-capable vessel with an anti-missile complement able to interdict short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. It also is capable of launching Tomahawk missiles. The ship in question, USS McCain, was previously misidentified as USS Fitzgerald, also a Burke-class destroyer, which is currently home ported in San Diego, CA.)
Chinese military activity has been increasing since the tensions began last month. China’s navy has conducted live-firing naval drills in the Yellow Sea that were set to end near the Korean peninsula. PLA armored formations were reported moving near the Yalu River that separates China from North Korea. Fixed-wing flights have been reported at the border, reacting to an unknown event inside North Korean airspace. No reporting has indicated any crossing by ground forces of the PRC/NK border at this time.
Other reports from China indicate that the heightened tensions have led to a disruption of trade between China and North Korea along the border between the two countries. It has been more difficult for the goods from North Korea to reach China because the North Korean Customs Office closed frequently as a result of increased Chinese inspections of North Korean goods.
U.S. officials and private analysts said the slowdown may be a sign of Beijing’s displeasure at the North Korean nuclear tests.
North Korean forces, meanwhile, are increasing readiness and activity. Reports from inside North Korea also revealed that DPRK soldiers have been issued bread, instant noodles, sausages, milk, and dried fish that appeared to be supplied by the United Nations as aid meant for the civilian population.
US Navy deployments have not significantly changed, as evidenced by the status of USN Carrier assets:
• GW Battle Group fwd deployed to Japan, in port;
• Stennis Battle Group at Singapore, bound for Bremerton;
• Carl Vinson Battle Group in port at San Diego;
• Reagan Battle Group off Puget Sound for maintenance;
OFFICIAL RESPONSES:
Official White House statements have renewed the call for North Korea to halt provocative rhetoric, but the United States has not detected any military mobilizations by Pyongyang to back up threats against the U.S. and South Korea.
US State Department Travel Warning for North Korea remains in effect
US PACOM has conducted at least two reported sorties of B-2 Spirit bomber in support of Exercise FOAL EAGLE.
The UN sanctions in accordance with UN Resolution 2094 remain in effect.
ANALYSIS:
The North Koreans do not possess the capability of striking CONUS with ballistic missiles of any kind. The longest range ballistic missile system, the KN-08 with a range of 4,000-5,000 km, can reach the Alaskan mainland at its most extreme range. The KN-08 also does not possess the payload capacity to carry anything more lethal than conventional warheads. Sea-launched missiles are beyond DPRK capability, as they only possess Soviet-style Romeo and Whiskey-class diesel submarines.
The PLAN (Chinese Navy) currently can deploy three SSBN (ballistic missile submarines) and one SSB (Cruise-missile submarine). China's naval policy has been one of regional dominance, rather than power projection, and their naval doctrine stresses "brown-water" versus "blue-water" operations.
The forward deployment and taskings of USN/USAF assets are a token demonstration of US resolve, in a measured response to North Korea's recent bellicose rhetoric, consisting of a single ship redeployment, four bomber sorties (two B-52, two B-2), and repositioning two F-22's to a forward base. Major USN assets are in normal deployment or in port.
CONCLUSIONS:
The official responses by the governments in question indicate that, while the diplomatic rhetoric and posturing continues to escalate tensions, the lack of major redeployment of military assets and demonstrations show a resolve to maintain the situation as it stands. In vernacular, "the hands have not dropped to the holsters" yet.
North Korea remains a regional power only, with limited to no power projection capability beyond a set range. The bellicose language heard from North Korea thus far retains the same pattern of escalation in past encounters. The Chinese, while remaining steadfast allies of the DPRK, also have silently expressed their displeasure at the tensions thus far.
The regional situation, while potentially volatile, remains cautiously stable for now. Further deployment or repositioning of major military assets are an indicator of policy change which could create the tipping point to hostilities.
This report focuses on regional activities associated with this event. Subsequent reporting will focus on domestic and national reactions and activities.
END OF REPORT
SUMMARY:
On 02 APR 2013, we collected additional information regarding the tensions involving US forces in South Korea.
Open source reporting via multiple sources (NBC/Fox, Xinhua, Pravda, and other news and Web sources) mentioned further tense rhetoric from North Korea, as well as reactions from interested powers including the PRC and USA.
REGIONAL STATUS:
The ROK and USFOR Korea are currently conducting Exercise FOAL EAGLE.
USFOR KOREA is offline and unavailable for reporting. USAG JAPAN is currently at FPCON ALPHA (Normal Ops).
Additional US Navy and USAF assets have been moved since last reporting. USS McCain (DDG-56) has been transferred from Yokosuka to station off Korea. Two F-22 Raptors have been transferred to Osan Air base in Korea, and are on "static display" while FOAL EAGLE is ongoing.
(NOTE: USS McCain, a Burke-class destroyer, is an Aegis-capable vessel with an anti-missile complement able to interdict short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. It also is capable of launching Tomahawk missiles. The ship in question, USS McCain, was previously misidentified as USS Fitzgerald, also a Burke-class destroyer, which is currently home ported in San Diego, CA.)
Chinese military activity has been increasing since the tensions began last month. China’s navy has conducted live-firing naval drills in the Yellow Sea that were set to end near the Korean peninsula. PLA armored formations were reported moving near the Yalu River that separates China from North Korea. Fixed-wing flights have been reported at the border, reacting to an unknown event inside North Korean airspace. No reporting has indicated any crossing by ground forces of the PRC/NK border at this time.
Other reports from China indicate that the heightened tensions have led to a disruption of trade between China and North Korea along the border between the two countries. It has been more difficult for the goods from North Korea to reach China because the North Korean Customs Office closed frequently as a result of increased Chinese inspections of North Korean goods.
U.S. officials and private analysts said the slowdown may be a sign of Beijing’s displeasure at the North Korean nuclear tests.
North Korean forces, meanwhile, are increasing readiness and activity. Reports from inside North Korea also revealed that DPRK soldiers have been issued bread, instant noodles, sausages, milk, and dried fish that appeared to be supplied by the United Nations as aid meant for the civilian population.
US Navy deployments have not significantly changed, as evidenced by the status of USN Carrier assets:
• GW Battle Group fwd deployed to Japan, in port;
• Stennis Battle Group at Singapore, bound for Bremerton;
• Carl Vinson Battle Group in port at San Diego;
• Reagan Battle Group off Puget Sound for maintenance;
OFFICIAL RESPONSES:
Official White House statements have renewed the call for North Korea to halt provocative rhetoric, but the United States has not detected any military mobilizations by Pyongyang to back up threats against the U.S. and South Korea.
US State Department Travel Warning for North Korea remains in effect
US PACOM has conducted at least two reported sorties of B-2 Spirit bomber in support of Exercise FOAL EAGLE.
The UN sanctions in accordance with UN Resolution 2094 remain in effect.
ANALYSIS:
The North Koreans do not possess the capability of striking CONUS with ballistic missiles of any kind. The longest range ballistic missile system, the KN-08 with a range of 4,000-5,000 km, can reach the Alaskan mainland at its most extreme range. The KN-08 also does not possess the payload capacity to carry anything more lethal than conventional warheads. Sea-launched missiles are beyond DPRK capability, as they only possess Soviet-style Romeo and Whiskey-class diesel submarines.
The PLAN (Chinese Navy) currently can deploy three SSBN (ballistic missile submarines) and one SSB (Cruise-missile submarine). China's naval policy has been one of regional dominance, rather than power projection, and their naval doctrine stresses "brown-water" versus "blue-water" operations.
The forward deployment and taskings of USN/USAF assets are a token demonstration of US resolve, in a measured response to North Korea's recent bellicose rhetoric, consisting of a single ship redeployment, four bomber sorties (two B-52, two B-2), and repositioning two F-22's to a forward base. Major USN assets are in normal deployment or in port.
CONCLUSIONS:
The official responses by the governments in question indicate that, while the diplomatic rhetoric and posturing continues to escalate tensions, the lack of major redeployment of military assets and demonstrations show a resolve to maintain the situation as it stands. In vernacular, "the hands have not dropped to the holsters" yet.
North Korea remains a regional power only, with limited to no power projection capability beyond a set range. The bellicose language heard from North Korea thus far retains the same pattern of escalation in past encounters. The Chinese, while remaining steadfast allies of the DPRK, also have silently expressed their displeasure at the tensions thus far.
The regional situation, while potentially volatile, remains cautiously stable for now. Further deployment or repositioning of major military assets are an indicator of policy change which could create the tipping point to hostilities.
This report focuses on regional activities associated with this event. Subsequent reporting will focus on domestic and national reactions and activities.
END OF REPORT