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Post by Michael Downing on Dec 12, 2015 19:43:27 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/simon-black-3-signs-weve-reached-the-top-in-the-financial-system/Simon Black: 3 signs we’ve reached ‘the top’ in the financial systemIt’s pretty clear there’s an incredible amount of risk in the system. And in the future when we look back and say, “It should have been so obvious,” here are a few events that may become famous watershed moments: 1) The $75 billion loan AB InBev just secured an astonishing $75 BILLION loan to buy rival SABMiller. This is the biggest commercial loan in the history of the world, roughly equivalent to the GDP of Azerbaijan. It’s incredible that anyone is able to borrow an amount like this, let alone at the low rate of just 1.1% above LIBOR. It’s not a stretch to think that we may look back at this and say, ‘that was the top… what an obvious example of how much money central bankers have printed.’ 2) The junk bond collapse Back in 2013, the yield on ‘high yield corporate bonds’ aka junk bonds dipped below 5% for the first time in history. It shouldn’t have taken a rocket scientist to figure out how absurd that was, but now that the trend is reversing and the junk bond market is stalling investors are losing their shirts. One hedge fund that had invested heavily in junk bonds just suspended redemptions for its investors, something only really done in times of crisis. This could be the historical watershed moment that signals the beginning of the end of our massive financial bubble. 3) The POPPY Loan [my favorite] San Francisco Federal Credit Union wants to help its customers buy unaffordable homes in the astonishingly overpriced region of northern California. So they just rolled out a new loan program called the Proud Ownership Purchase Program for You, or POPPY for short. POPPY loans allow customers to borrow up to $2 MILLION with absolutely no money down. And no, I am not making this up. $0 down. $2 million. At 4% interest. Oh, and you don’t have to take out private mortgage insurance (PMI) either. If you’re not familiar, PMI is something that banks typically require when borrowers don’t contribute a sufficient down payment; it insures the bank against loss in case the borrower defaults. So here the bank is taking 100% of the financial risk lending against property in an overpriced market that’s near its all-time high. And they’re doing it with your money.
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Post by Michael Downing on Dec 13, 2015 22:07:46 GMT -5
h/t WRSA for two... Feeling frisky about your financial future? straightlinelogic.com/2015/12/13/crisis-progress-report-14-global-margin-call/Crisis Progress Report (14): Global Margin Call, by Robert GoreWhile the Fed may finally mark up the cost of credit to leveraged speculators this week, they are following, not leading, credit markets, which have already marked up the cost of credit, and by a lot more than twenty-five basis points, to leveraged speculators in oil, natural gas, coal, iron ore, aluminum, steel, container ships, railroads, trucks, factories, infrastructure projects, buildings, and more. The Fed move may be the coup de grâce for stock prices, which for most companies are already well off their highs, but with all due respect to Stockman, the end of bubble arrived over a year ago. There may be an interesting twist to this margin call and debt contraction. Usually debt supports long positions in assets. Figures indicate a preponderance of speculative short positions in the gold, and to a lesser degree, silver futures markets. Leverage can fund short positions as well as longs. Claims have been made that central banks and the banking industry have a vested interest in suppressing the prices of precious metals and have in fact done so. This, so the argument goes, has created a massive imbalance between the amounts shorted on paper in the futures market and actual physical precious metals available for delivery. SLL does not dismiss this speculation because it may be right. If so, those leveraged speculators who are short the precious metals could get caught up in a margin call reflecting the general contraction in debt and fall in asset prices. In the reverse of the usual situation, they would have to close out their positions, buying either futures or the physical metals. We may see some spectacular short-covering fireworks, sending the prices of precious metals explosively higher while everything else is going down. This is conjecture, not a bet-the-ranch proposition. SLL has been bullish on the precious metals for some time, and this may be yet another reason for bullishness. Baron Rothschild, a 19th century member of the banking dynasty, is credited with saying: “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” Since then, speculators have tried to catch falling daggers, rationalizing that financial losses already sustained by other speculators amounted to “blood in the streets,” but usually only impaling themselves. Rothschild meant that one should wait to buy until there is literally blood in the streets, crimson rivers of it. Full-bore bear markets and depressions are accompanied by wars and tectonic political shifts, even revolutions. During these troubled times, most of us should stick with cash, provisions, firearms, and some precious metals, reduce or eliminate debt, and avoid speculating from either the long or short side. However, nothing lasts forever and eventually the financial landscape will be dotted with screamingly cheap survivors of the carnage. When to dip a toe in the investment waters? Follow Baron Rothschild’s advice. davidstockmanscontracorner.com/december-16-2015-when-the-end-of-the-bubble-begins/December 16, 2015—–When The End Of The Bubble Begins They are going to layer their post-meeting statement with a steaming pile of if, ands & buts. It will exude an abundance of caution and a dearth of clarity. Having judged that a 25 bps pinprick is warranted, the FOMC will then plant itself firmly in front of the great flickering dashboard in the Eccles Building. There it will repose to a regimen of “watchful waiting”, scouring the entrails of the “incoming data” to divine its next move. Perhaps the waiting won’t be so watchful as all that, however. What is actually coming down the pike is something that may put the reader, at least those who have already been invited to join AARP, more in mind of that once a year hour-long special broadcast by Saturday morning TV back in the days of yesteryear; it explained how the Lone Ranger got his mask. Memory fails, but either 12 or 19 Texas Rangers rode high in the saddle into a box canyon, confident they knew what was around the bend. Soon there was a lot of gunfire and then there was just one, and that was only because Tonto’s pony needed to stop for a drink. Yellen and her posse better pray for a monetary Tonto because they are riding headlong into an ambush in the canyons of Wall Street. To wit, they cannot possibly raise money market interest rates—-even by 75 bps—-without massively draining liquidity from the casino. Don’t they know what happened to the $3.5 trillion of central bank credit they have digitally printed since September 2008? Do they really think that fully $2.6 trillion of it just recycled right back to the New York Fed as excess bank reserves? That is, no harm, no foul and no inflation? The monetary equivalent of a tree falling in an empty forest? To the contrary, how about recognizing the letter “f” for fungibility. What all that “excess” is about is collateral, not idle money.
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Post by Michael Downing on Dec 14, 2015 12:30:53 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/december-14th-to-18th-a-week-of-reckoning-for-global-stocks-if-the-fed-hikes-interest-rates/December 14th To 18th: A Week Of Reckoning For Global Stocks If The Fed Hikes Interest Rates?Are we about to witness widespread panic in the global financial marketplace? This week is shaping up to be an absolutely critical week for global stocks. Coming into December, more than half of the 93 largest stock market indexes in the world were down more than 10 percent year to date, and last week stocks really started to slide all over the world. Here in the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 600 points over the past week or so, and at this point it is down more than 1000 points from the peak of the market. That brings us to this week, during which the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the very first time since the last financial crisis. If that happens, that could potentially be enough to accelerate this “slide” into a full-blown crash. And just look at what is already happening. Trading for stocks in the Middle East has opened for the week, and we are already witnessing tremendous carnage… Following Friday’s further freefall in crude oil prices, The Middle East is opening down notably. Abu Dhabi, Saudi, and Kuwait are lower; Israel is weak and UAE and Qatar are tumbling, but Dubai is worst for now. Dubai is down for the 6th day in a row (dropping over 3% – the most in a month) extending the opening losses to 2-year lows. The 11% drop in the last 6 days is the largest since the post-China-devaluation global stock collapse. Leading the losses are financial and property firms. Things in Asia look very troubling as well. As I write this, the Japanese market has just opened, and the Nikkei is already down 508 points.
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Post by Michael Downing on Dec 15, 2015 20:11:18 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/this-is-what-a-financial-crisis-looks-like/This Is What A Financial Crisis Looks LikeJust within the past few days, three major high yield funds have completely imploded, and panic is spreading rapidly on Wall Street. Funds run by Third Avenue Management and Stone Lion Capital Partners have suspended payments to investors, and a fund run by Lucidus Capital Partners has liquidated its entire portfolio. We are witnessing a race for the exits unlike anything that we have seen since the great financial crash of 2008, and many of those that choose to hesitate are going to end up getting totally wiped out. In case you are wondering, this is what a financial crisis looks like. In 2008, other global stock markets started to tumble, then junk bonds began to crash, and finally U.S. stocks followed. The exact same pattern is playing out again, and the carnage that we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. Since the end of 2009, a high yield bond ETF that I watch very closely known as JNK has been trading in a range between 36 and 42. I have been waiting all this time for it to dip below 35, because I knew that would be a sign that the next major financial crisis was imminent. In September, it closed as low as 35.33 at one point, but that was not the signal that I was looking for. Finally, early last week JNK broke below 35 for the very first time since the last financial crisis, and since then it has just kept on falling. As I write this, JNK has plummeted all the way to 33.42, and Bloomberg is reporting that many bond managers “are predicting more carnage for high-yield investors”… Top bond managers are predicting more carnage for high-yield investors amid a market rout that forced at least three credit funds in the past week to wind down.
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Post by Michael Downing on Dec 21, 2015 16:44:20 GMT -5
Personally I think they should have started raising rates incrementally some time ago. They have propped up this financial house of cards they created since 2008 and it can't be held up for ever. The market should have been allowed to find its own correction in 2008. Yeah it would have hurt but it's gonna hurt a hell of a lot more the longer now. ncrenegade.com/editorial/the-rate-hike-stock-market-crash-has-thrown-gasoline-onto-an-already-raging-global-financial-inferno/The Rate Hike Stock Market Crash Has Thrown Gasoline Onto An Already Raging Global Financial InfernoIf the stock market crash of last Thursday and Friday had all happened on one day, it would have been the 7th largest single day decline in U.S. history. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 367 points after finishing down 253 points on Thursday. The overall decline of 620 points between the two days would have been the 7th largest single day stock market crash ever experienced in the United States if it had happened within just one trading day. If you will remember, this is precisely what I warned would happen if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. But when news of the rate hike first came out on Wednesday, stocks initially jumped. This didn’t make any sense at all, and personally I was absolutely stunned that the markets had behaved so irrationally. But then we saw that on Thursday and Friday the markets did exactly what we thought they would do. The chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, is calling the brief rally on Wednesday “a head-fake of enormous proportions“, and analysts all over Wall Street are bracing for what could be another very challenging week ahead. When the Federal Reserve decided to lift interest rates, they made a colossal error. You don’t raise interest rates when a global financial crisis has already started. That is absolutely suicidal. It is the kind of thing that you would do if you were trying to bring down the global financial system on purpose. Surely the “experts” at the Federal Reserve can see what is happening. Junk bonds have already crashed, just like they did in 2008. The price of oil has crashed, just like it did in 2008. Commodity prices have crashed, just like they did in 2008. And more than half of all major global stock market indexes are already down at least 10 percent for the year so far. You don’t raise interest rates in that kind of an environment. You would have to be utterly insane to do so.
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Post by Michael Downing on Dec 21, 2015 16:52:49 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/back-to-reality-by-robert-gore/Back To Reality, by Robert GoreThis site spends little time discussing and analyzing central banks’ policies. Some of the media’s preoccupation with central banks reflects an ideological endorsement of command and control SLL does not share. There are people, mostly well-educated, who actually believe that economies with millions of producers, consumers, and businesses, engaging daily in billions of transactions, can be directed by a group of central bank bureaucrats manipulating short-term interest rates and exchanging the government’s debt for their own fiat debt.Historically Efficacious Government and Central Bank Control of Economies is an even shorter book than The Humility of Donald Trump. The titles of both are longer than the contents, but while faith in central banks waxes and wanes, it never dies. Some of the aforementioned preoccupation is journalistic and analytical laziness: it’s easier to speculate and report on central bank statements and policies than it is to determine what’s actually going on with an economy. SLL devoted two paragraphs to the Fed’s latest move, and the thrust of those paragraphs was that markets had already marked up rates for a substantial segment of borrowers, starting about six months ago, and the Fed, as it usually does, was following the market. The Fed’s zero rate federal funds target took short terms rates lower than they would have been absent that Fed policy. Europe and Japan’s negative interest rates are an even greater distortion from free market rates. However, the global economy was burdened with more debt than it could sustain back in 2008, when the Fed kicked off the global central banks’ easy credit campaign. That excess of debt ensured that interest rates would remain low by historical standards (for the most creditworthy borrowers), whether central banks intervened or not.
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Post by Michael Downing on Dec 24, 2015 9:10:40 GMT -5
h/t N C Renegade www.alt-market.com/articles/2769-what-fresh-horror-awaits-the-economy-after-fed-rate-hikeWhat Fresh Horror Awaits The Economy After Fed Rate Hike?There is one predominant reality that must be understood before a person can grasp the nature of the Federal Reserve and the decisions it makes, and that reality is this: The Fed’s purpose is not to defend or extend American markets or the dollar; the Fed’s job is ultimately to DESTROY American markets and the dollar. I have been repeating this little fact for years because it seems as though many otherwise intelligent people simply will not accept the truth, which is why they have trouble comprehending the actions that the Fed initiates. When analysts make the claim that the Fed has positioned itself "between a rock and a hard place" in terms of policy, this is not entirely true. The Fed is exactly where it wants to be in terms of policy; but the central bank has indeed positioned the U.S. ECONOMY between a rock and a hard place, by design. Globalists see the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy as expendable (for the most part), and this sacrifice is meant to create distracting chaos as well as geopolitical advantage towards a new fully centralized world economic system. You can read the considerable evidence for this agenda in my article 'The Fall Of America Signals The Rise Of The New World Order'. If you believe the Fed is the sole purveyor of the global economic crisis and is at the top of the internationalist pyramid, then you probably predicted that the privately controlled central bank would “never in a million years” raise interest rates (many prominent people within the alternative economic scene did). If you believe that the Fed’s primary goal is to prolong the life span of the “American empire,” again, you probably predicted that the Fed would never raise interest rates. There is a serious normalcy bias when it comes to parts of the alternative economic world and their position on the Federal Reserve. They refuse to acknowledge that the Fed is a deliberately preset time bomb meant to vaporize the U.S. economic system and currency. And as long as this continues, they will never be able to determine what is likely to happen next within our fiscal structure. There is no way around it: If you cannot grasp the root motivations of the Fed, then you will become cognitively crippled in your struggle to see the next pitfall in the near-term economic future. In August, I made this prediction concerning the Fed rate hike decision: "The Federal Reserve push for a rate hike will likely be determined before 2015 is over. Talk of a September increase in interest rates may be a ploy, and a last-minute decision to delay could be on the table. This tactic of edge-of-the-seat meetings and surprise delays was used during the QE taper scenario, which threw a lot of analysts off their guard and caused many to believe that a taper would never happen. Well, it did happen, just as a rate hike will happen, only slightly later than mainstream analysts expect. If a delay occurs, it will be short-lived, triggering a dead cat bounce in stocks, with rates increasing by December as dismal retail sales become undeniable leading into the Christmas season." I made the prediction (as well as my prediction on the taper in 2013) on the foundation that the Fed is only an appendage of a greater elitist banking machine. The Fed as an institutional idea is not sacrosanct for the elites, and is at the very least replaceable. The dollar is slated for demolition. And though it may continue on for a time in a more marginalized capacity, the “Fed note” as we know it today will soon be crushed under the weight of what the International Monetary Fund calls the “global economic reset.” In other words, every part of my prediction turned out correct because I accepted the reality that the Fed will invariably take the most destructive policy actions at the worst possible time with the purpose of crisis in mind. Central bankers also have a tendency to follow patterns. They rarely change strategies on a whim. Most of the decisions we see made by the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, etc. were likely made months, if not years, in advance and follow the same strategies used during previous crises. For example, the Fed process of raising interest rates this December followed almost exactly the process they used to introduce the taper of QE3 in 2013: a buildup of rhetoric in mainstream news during the first half of the year and then a fake-out in September, followed by months of uncertainty in markets and then quick passage of the policy in December. The Fed also has a habit of raising interest rates at the onset of economic instability or right in the middle of a downturn, as it did in 1928-1929, triggering the Great Depression, and in 1931, adding fuel to the fire of financial catastrophe. These particular catalyzing policy actions are partly what Ben Bernanke was referring to on Nov. 8, 2002, in a speech given at “A Conference to Honor Milton Friedman … On the Occasion of His 90th Birthday”: "In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great Contraction were much more severe and widespread than would have normally occurred during a downturn. Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again." Based on this pattern of policy actions leading to fiscal disaster, I believe alternative analysts can predict with some certainty what is likely to happen now that the Fed has raised rates in the middle of the most pervasive economic contraction since the Great Depression was initiated (as Bernanke admitted) by central bankers. Here are some trends that I believe will become exponential as we move into 2016.
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Post by Michael Downing on Dec 27, 2015 19:06:18 GMT -5
h/t NC Renegade straightlinelogic.com/2015/12/27/atlas-collapsed-by-robert-gore/Atlas CollapsedThe sputtering of the global economy, its dying gasp before it descends into depression, are not the result, unfortunately, of a conscious shrug among the world’s Atlases, but rather their staggering—to be followed by their collapse—under the weight of taxes, regulations, corruption, enforced transfer payments and government-provided services to the unproductive, permanent war, and the maintenance of massive military-industrial-security complexes. Unable to limit their rapacity to the fruits of the current generation’s labor, governments have plunged into debt, stealing from future generations and consigning them to debt slavery until they either collapse or repudiate. Bankruptcy and war will fell the current constellation of governments. While government failure is nothing new, the scale of the impending collapse will be unprecedented. Debt, fiat currencies, and taxes only allow so much fraud and theft. To survive and thrive, governments must be able to acquire real resources with their phony scrip and expropriation. The world’s public and private debt is a lien, often a literal one, on the world’s real resources, and its nominal value of around $225 trillion is about three times world GDP. That nominal value understates the true extent to which present and future assets and production are encumbered. Welfare state pension and medical promises dwarf current governmental debts. Add entitlement promises to existing debt and even that gargantuan number falls well short of the notional amount of financial derivatives, all of which incorporate some sort of debt. Estimates of their size range from $700 trillion to over a quadrillion dollars. The world is at peak debt; it’s broke. In effect, every real asset on the planet is subject to one or more claims; every financial asset is somebody’s debt (or equity, which is only a residual and contingent claim behind debt), and income streams are less than total debt service. This unsustainable load will grow more unsustainable. Deleveraging, mostly from insolvency and write-offs, has barely begun, and so far has only occurred in the natural resource sector. The ongoing constriction of opportunities in developed world welfare states has been met with a reduction in family formation and birthrates. Denied the opportunity to produce, would-be Atlases are not marrying or procreating, either. This means aging populations and increasing draws on old age “entitlements” will be funded by a shrinking pool of producers. Measured in dollars, world GDP started contracting last quarter and will continue to do so as recession, debt contraction, falling asset prices, excess capacity, and rising unemployment spread from Canada, Brazil, and many emerging market countries to the rest of the world. Predictions of some sort of emergent global government and a new world order should be met with skepticism. Not that there aren’t plenty of people out there who wouldn’t like to see such an outcome, but governments require resources, and the bigger the government, the more resources it requires. Governments propose; individuals dispose. Bigger, more powerful, intrusive, and repressive government will also be more expensive government, hastening Atlas’ collapse. A global superstate can steal every asset and institute slavery, but the world’s productive individuals, denied their rightful incentives, will produce enough to subsist and no more. The result will not be an imposed “order,” but chaos, as the dream of world government crashes on the reality of producers who cannot and will not sustain it. The most dangerous predictions of the future are straight line projections of the past. A straight line prediction that governments will continue to grow, get more powerful, and perhaps consolidate into a still bigger and more powerful government may be the most dangerous prediction of all. Imposing order requires energy, and government as an institution is already spent and exhausted. The future is not likely Orwell’s totalitarian nightmare, but rather the human entropy that has engulfed the Middle East and Northern Africa and is migrating to Europe. Say hello to the gathering world disorder.
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Post by Michael Downing on Dec 29, 2015 22:51:37 GMT -5
The whole house of cards is teetering and at some point will collapse upon itself. The entire system has been supported by credit not actual cash, even the cash is that exists is not backed by anything of value. That being said we all know the routine. Keep enough cash stashed away to carry you 30-90 days. Convert what you can to gold but even more practically to silver which is more practical in 1 ounce bars for everyday transactions. Stock up on normal household necessities and other items that will be valuable for barter. If possible move to a place or have a place you can move to that is as far as possible from city centers and where you can be as self sustainable as possible. Keep it local, local, local... theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/financial-armageddon-approaches-u-s-banks-have-247-trillion-dollars-of-exposure-to-derivatives Financial Armageddon Approaches: U.S. Banks Have 247 Trillion Dollars Of Exposure To DerivativesDid you know that there are 5 “too big to fail” banks in the United States that each have exposure to derivatives contracts that is in excess of 30 trillion dollars? Overall, the biggest U.S. banks collectively have more than 247 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives contracts. That is an amount of money that is more than 13 times the size of the U.S. national debt, and it is a ticking time bomb that could set off financial Armageddon at any moment. Globally, the notional value of all outstanding derivatives contracts is a staggering 552.9 trillion dollars according to the Bank for International Settlements. The bankers assure us that these financial instruments are far less risky than they sound, and that they have spread the risk around enough so that there is no way they could bring the entire system down. But that is the thing about risk – you can try to spread it around as many ways as you can, but you can never eliminate it. And when this derivatives bubble finally implodes, there won’t be enough money on the entire planet to fix it. A lot of readers may be tempted to quit reading right now, because “derivatives” is a term that sounds quite complicated. And yes, the details of these arrangements can be immensely complicated, but the concept is quite simple. Here is a good definition of “derivatives” that comes from Investopedia… A derivative is a security with a price that is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets. The derivative itself is a contract between two or more parties based upon the asset or assets. Its value is determined by fluctuations in the underlying asset. The most common underlying assets include stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates and market indexes. I like to refer to the derivatives marketplace as a form of “legalized gambling”. Those that are engaged in derivatives trading are simply betting that something either will or will not happen in the future. Derivatives played a critical role in the financial crisis of 2008, and I am fully convinced that they will take on a starring role in this new financial crisis. theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/january-1-2016-the-new-bank-bail-in-system-goes-into-effect-in-europeJanuary 1, 2016: The New Bank Bail-In System Goes Into Effect In Europe
If you have a bank account anywhere in Europe, you need to read this article. On January 1st, 2016, a new bail-in system will go into effect for all European banks. This new system is based on the Cyprus bank bail-ins that we witnessed a few years ago. If you will remember, money was grabbed from anyone that had more than 100,000 euros in their bank accounts in order to bail out the banks. Now the exact same principles that were used in Cyprus are going to apply to all of Europe. And with the entire global financial system teetering on the brink of chaos, that is not good news for those that have large amounts of money stashed in shaky European banks. Below, I have shared part of an announcement about this new bail-in system that comes directly from the official website of the European Parliament. I want you to notice that they explicitly say that “unsecured depositors would be affected last”. What they really mean is that any time a bank in Europe fails, they are going to come after private bank accounts once the shareholders and bond holders have been wiped out. So if you have more than 100,000 euros in a European bank right now, you are potentially on the hook when that bank goes under… The directive establishes a bail-in system which will ensure that taxpayers will be last in the line to the pay the bills of a struggling bank. In a bail-in, creditors, according to a pre-defined hierarchy, forfeit some or all of their holdings to keep the bank alive. The bail-in system will apply from 1 January 2016. The bail-in tool set out in the directive would require shareholders and bond holders to take the first big hits. Unsecured depositors (over €100,000) would be affected last, in many cases even after the bank-financed resolution fund and the national deposit guarantee fund in the country where it is located have stepped in to help stabilise the bank. Smaller depositors would in any case be explicitly excluded from any bail-in. And as we have seen in the past, these rules can change overnight in the midst of a major crisis. theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-cashless-society-cometh-european-nations-such-as-sweden-and-denmark-are-eradicating-cash The Cashless Society Cometh: European Nations Such As Sweden And Denmark Are ‘Eradicating Cash’Did you know that 95 percent of all retail sales in Sweden are cashless? And did you know that the government of Denmark has a stated goal of “eradicating cash” by the year 2030? All over the world, we are seeing a relentless march toward a cashless society, and nowhere is this more true than in northern Europe. In Sweden, hundreds of bank branches no longer accept or dispense cash, and thousands of ATM machines have been permanently removed. At this point, bills and coins only account for just 2 percent of the Swedish economy, and many stores no longer take cash at all. The notion of a truly “cashless society” was once considered to be science fiction, but now we are being told that it is “inevitable”, and authorities insist that it will enable them to thwart criminals, terrorists, drug runners, money launderers and tax evaders. But what will we give up in the process? In Sweden, the transition to a cashless society is being enthusiastically embraced. The following is an excerpt from a New York Times article that was published on Saturday… Parishioners text tithes to their churches. Homeless street vendors carry mobile credit-card readers. Even the Abba Museum, despite being a shrine to the 1970s pop group that wrote “Money, Money, Money,” considers cash so last-century that it does not accept bills and coins. Few places are tilting toward a cashless future as quickly as Sweden, which has become hooked on the convenience of paying by app and plastic. To me, giving money in church electronically seems so bizarre. But it is starting to happen here in the United States, and in Sweden some churches collect most of their tithes and offerings this way…
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Post by avordvet on Dec 31, 2015 6:23:22 GMT -5
The Wheels Just Fell Off: US Trucking Has Not Been This Bad Since The Financial CrisisSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2015 19:30 -0500 Earlier this month, we profiled yet another casualty of slumping trade, falling commodity prices, and mediocre, double-adjusted economic “growth”: trucking. More specifically, we highlighted the dramatic November decline in Class 5-8 orders. The numbers for Class 8 - those trucks with a gross weight over 33K pounds and which, you’re reminded, make up the backbone of U.S. trade infrastructure and logistics - were a veritable disaster. www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-30/wheels-just-fell-us-trucking-has-not-been-bad-financial-crisis
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Post by avordvet on Jan 5, 2016 6:09:58 GMT -5
Stock Markets All Over The World Crash As We Begin 2016By Michael Snyder, on January 4th, 2016 The first trading day of 2016 was full of chaos and panic. It started in Asia where the Nikkei was down 582 points, Hong Kong was down 587 points, and Chinese markets experienced an emergency shutdown after the CSI 300 tumbled 7 percent. When European markets opened, the nightmare continued. The DAX was down 459 points, and European stocks overall had their worst start to a year ever. In the U.S., it looked like we were on course for a truly historic day as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 467 points at one stage, but some very mysterious late day buying activity helped trim the loss to just 276 points at the close of the market. The sudden market turmoil caught many by surprise, but it shouldn’t have. The truth is that a whole host of leading indicators have been telling us that this is exactly what should be happening. The global financial crisis that began in 2015 is now accelerating, and my regular readers already know precisely what is coming next. theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/stock-markets-all-over-the-world-crash-as-we-begin-2016
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 6, 2016 23:13:19 GMT -5
Tick, tock, tick, tock... 2nd time this week makes me wonder, is this a trend? www.cnbc.com/2016/01/06/China shares suspended after CSI 300 plunges more than 7%China's stocks were suspended from all trade on Thursday after the CSI300 tumbled more than 7 percent in early trade, triggering the market's circuit breaker for a second time this week. That drop-kicked stock markets across Asia, which were already wallowing after a weaker open amid concerns over China's economic slowdown and its depreciating currency as well as falling oil prices. On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite tumbled 7.32 percent by at the time of the halt, while the Shenzhen Composite plummeted 8.34 percent. The CSI300, the benchmark index against which China's new circuit breakers are set, plunged 7.21 percent. If that index rises or falls 5 percent, the market halts all trade for 15 minutes. If it moves 7 percent, trading will be suspended for the rest of the day. In total Thursday, China shares only traded around 15 minutes.
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 10, 2016 20:25:32 GMT -5
h/t N C Renegade straightlinelogic.com/2016/01/10/crisis-progress-report-15-happy-new-year-by-robert-gore/Crisis Progress Report (15): Happy New YearIn 2016, investors need to understand three things. This economic and financial contraction will not be an ordinary cyclical recession. It is the backside of decades of debt growth in excess of economic growth and the peak of underlying social optimism which produced that unsustainable disparity. Debt contraction and reversing social mood will be the unifying element of many seemingly unconnected stories this year. Raúl Ilargi Meijer at theautomaticearth.com noted this unification in an article featured on SLL. If there’s one thing to take away from this year’s developments in markets and economies so far, it’s that they are all linked, they’re all part of the same thing. If you can’t see that, you’re not going to understand what’s happening. Looking at falling oil prices as a separate thread is not much use, and neither is doing the same with Chinese stocks, or the yuan, or the millions of Americans who are one paycheck away from poverty, for that matter. It’s all one story. This linkage extends beyond markets and economics. A driver of the mounting discord in the Middle East and consequent refugee flow has surely been the 65 percent decline in the price of oil, the region’s chief resource, since mid-2014. Finally, while announcements of government and central bank measures during the downturn will trigger bursts of optimism and soaring short-covering rallies, everything they do will prove at best ineffectual and, much more likely, counterproductive. That is not, as some commentators argue, because they have exhausted their remedies addressing the last financial crisis—there is no limit to their stupidity and desperation—but because their remedies were never remedies in the first place. Government issued debt and its exchange for central bank debt at suppressed interest rates did not solve the problem of debt that was unsustainable in 2007, it only added to it. Debt has increased over 58 percent, from $142 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2007 to an estimated $225 trillion now. Consequently, this crisis will be that much worse than the last one.
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 12, 2016 9:10:41 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/the-financial-crisis-of-2016-rolls-on-china-oil-copper-and-junk-bonds-all-continue-to-crash/The Financial Crisis Of 2016 Rolls On – China, Oil, Copper And Junk Bonds All Continue To CrashNever before have we seen a year start like this. On Monday, Chinese stocks crashed once again. The Shanghai Composite Index plummeted another 5.29 percent, and this comes on the heels of two historic single day crashes last week. All of this chaos over in China is one of the factors that continues to push commodity prices even lower. Today the price of copper fell another 2.40 percent to $1.97, and the price of oil continued to implode. At one point the price of U.S. oil plunged all the way down to $30.99 a barrel before rebounding just a little bit. As I write this article, oil is down a total of 6.12 percent for the day and is currently sitting at $31.13. U.S. stocks were mixed on Monday, but it is important to note that the Russell 2000 did officially enter bear market territory. This is yet another confirmation of what I was talking about yesterday. And junk bonds continue to plummet. As I write this, JNK is down to 33.42. All of these numbers are huge red flags that are screaming that big trouble is ahead. Unfortunately, the mainstream media continues to insist that there is absolutely nothing to be concerned about. A little over a year ago, I wrote an article that explained that anyone that believed that low oil prices were good for the economy was “crazy“. At the time, many people really didn’t understand what I was trying to communicate, but now it is becoming exceedingly clear. On Monday, one veteran oil and gas analyst told CNBC that “half of U.S. shale oil producers could go bankrupt” over the next couple of years… Half of U.S. shale oil producers could go bankrupt before the crude market reaches equilibrium, Fadel Gheit, said Monday.
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 12, 2016 18:15:48 GMT -5
iowadawg.com/this-is-scary-folks-great-depression-coming-soon/This is Scary Folks! Great Depression Coming SoonGREAT DEPRESSION 2.0: SELL EVERYTHING, 2016 ‘CATACLYSMIC YEAR’ FOR STOCKS, WARNS RBS Saudis freak out over collapsing oil prices while Chinese economy no different than Ponzi scheme…. RBS doomsday prophecy: UK bank tells investors to sell everything ahead of ‘cataclysmic year’ Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has warned its clients that 2016 could be a “cataclysmic year”, going as far as predicting stock values could fall by a fifth and oil prices could plunge to $16 (£11, €15) a barrel, even though crude has not dropped below the $30 threshold for 12 years. The doomsday scenario, described in a note the bank sent to its clients on 8 January, was somewhat echoed by two other major lenders, with Morgan Stanley saying the price of oil could fall below $20 a barrel, while UBS warned of a “significant change” in the markets.
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 13, 2016 19:34:06 GMT -5
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 14, 2016 21:14:12 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/canadians-panic-as-food-prices-soar-on-collapsing-currency/Canadians Panic As Food Prices Soar On Collapsing CurrencyIt was just yesterday when we documented the continuing slide in the loonie, which is suffering mightily in the face of oil’s inexorable decline. As regular readers are no doubt acutely aware, Canada is struggling through a dramatic economic adjustment, especially in Alberta, the heart of the country’s oil patch. Amid the ongoing crude carnage the province has seen soaring property crime, rising food bank usage and, sadly, elevated suicide rates, as Albertans struggle to comprehend how things up north could have gone south (so to speak) so quickly. The plunging loonie “can only serve to worsen the death of the ‘Canadian Dream'” we said on Tuesday. As it turns out, we were exactly right. The currency’s decline is having a pronounced effect on Canadians’ grocery bills. As Bloomberg reminds us, Canada imports around 80% of its fresh fruits and vegetables. When the loonie slides, prices for those goods soar. “With lower-income households tending to spend a larger portion of income on food, this side effect of a soft currency brings them the most acute stress,” Bloomberg continues.
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 14, 2016 21:17:05 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/the-dow-falls-another-364-points-and-we-are-now-down-2200-points-from-the-peak-of-the-market/The Dow Falls Another 364 Points And We Are Now Down 2200 Points From The Peak Of The MarketIt was another day of utter carnage on Wall Street. The Dow was down another 364 points, the S&P 500 broke below 1900, and the Nasdaq had a much larger percentage loss than either of them. The Russell 2000 has now fallen 22 percent from the peak, and it has officially entered bear market territory. After 13 days, this remains the worst start to a year for stocks ever, and trillions of dollars of stock market wealth has already been wiped out globally. Meanwhile, junk bonds continue their collapse. JNK got hammered all the way down to 33.06 as bond investors race for the exits. In case you were wondering, this is exactly what a financial crisis look like. Many of the “experts” had been proclaiming that “things are different this time” and that stocks could defy gravity forever. Now we seeing that was not true at all. So how far could stocks ultimately fall? I have been telling my readers that stocks still need to fall about another 30 percent just to get to a level that is considered to be “normal” be historical standards, but the truth is that they could eventually fall much farther than that.
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Post by avordvet on Jan 15, 2016 6:12:17 GMT -5
Lowest Ever: The Baltic Dry Index Plunges To 394 As Global Trade Grinds To A StandstillBy Michael Snyder, on January 14th, 2016 For the first time ever, the Baltic Dry Index has fallen under 400. As I write this article, it is sitting at 394. To be honest, I never even imagined that it could go this low. Back in early August, the Baltic Dry Index was sitting at 1,222, and since then it has been on a steady decline. Of course the Baltic Dry Index crashed hard just before the great stock market crash of 2008 too, but at this point it is already lower than it was during that entire crisis. This is just more evidence that global trade is grinding to a halt and that 2016 is going to be a “cataclysmic year” for the global economy. If you are not familiar with the Baltic Dry Index, here is a helpful definition theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/lowest-ever-the-baltic-dry-index-plunges-to-394-as-global-trade-grinds-to-a-standstill
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 16, 2016 19:58:45 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/welcome-to-the-new-normal-the-dow-crashes-another-390-points-and-wal-mart-closes-269-stores/Welcome To The New Normal: The Dow Crashes Another 390 Points And Wal-Mart Closes 269 StoresDid you know that 15 trillion dollars of global stock market wealth has been wiped out since last June? The worldwide financial crisis that began in the middle of last year is starting to spin wildly out of control. On Friday, the Dow plunged another 390 points, and it is now down a total of 1,437 points since the beginning of this calendar year. Never before in U.S. history have stocks ever started a year this badly. The same thing can be said in Europe, where stocks have now officially entered bear market territory. As I discussed yesterday, the economic slowdown and financial unraveling that we are witnessing are truly global in scope. Banks are failing all over the continent, and I expect major European banks to start making some huge headlines not too long from now. And of course let us not forget about China. On Friday the Shanghai Composite declined another 3.6 percent, and overall it is now down more than 20 percent from its December high. Much of this chaos has been driven by the continuing crash of the price of oil. As I write this article, it has dipped below 30 dollars a barrel, and many of the big banks are projecting that it still has much farther to fall. The other night, Barack Obama got up in front of the American people and proclaimed that anyone that was saying that the economy was not recovering was peddling fiction. Well, if the U.S. economy is doing so great, then why in the world has Wal-Mart decided to shut down 269 stores?… Walmart (WMT) will close 269 stores around the world in a strategic move to focus more on its supercenters and e-commerce business, the company said Friday. www.wral.com/17-wal-mart-stores-closing-in-north-carolina/15238985/17 Wal-Mart stores closing in North CarolinaRALEIGH, N.C. — Seventeen Wal-Mart stores in North Carolina are among the 269 stores that the Arkansas-based company is closing in the United States and Brazil. In North Carolina, 16 of the stores are a Wal-Mart Express, which the company opened as a pilot in 2011. Wal-Mart is closing all 102 of those stores. The 17th store is a Wal-Mart Supercenter in Durham. The Wal-Mart Express stores that are closing in North Carolina are in Princeton, Coats, Four Oaks, Broadway, Red Springs, Stedman, Oriental, Benson, Carthage, Pikeville, Liberty, Richfield, Yanceyville, Snow Hill, Ayden and Midway. More than 95 percent of the stores set to be closed in the U.S. are within 10 miles of another Wal-Mart. The store closures will start at the end of the month.
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Post by avordvet on Jan 18, 2016 14:41:18 GMT -5
The Fed Responds To Zero Hedge: Here Are Some Follow Up QuestionsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/18/2016 13:06 -0500 Over the weekend, we gave the Dallas Fed a chance to respond to a Zero Hedge story corroborated by at least two independent sources, in which we reported that Federal Reserve members had met with bank lenders with distressed loan exposure to the US oil and gas sector and, after parsing through the complete bank books, had advised banks to i) not urge creditor counterparties into default, ii) urge asset sales instead, and iii) ultimately suspend mark to market in various instances. Moments ago the Dallas Fed, whose president since September 2015 is Robert Steven Kaplan, a former Goldman Sachs career banker who after 22 years at the bank rose to the rank of vice chairman of its investment bank group - an odd background for a regional Fed president - took the time away from its holiday schedule to respond to Zero Hedge. This is what it said. No truth to this @zerohedge story. The Dallas Fed does not issue such guidance to banks. t.co/rmE3Zul3PM
— Dallas Fed (@dallasfed) January 18, 2016We thank the Dallas Fad for their prompt attention to this important matter. After all, as one of our sources commented, "If revolvers are not being marked anymore, then it's basically early days of subprime when mbs payback schedules started to fall behind." Surely there is nothing that can grab the public's attention more than a rerun of the mortgage crisis, especially if confirmed by the highest institution. As such we understand the Dallas Fed's desire to avoid a public reaction and preserve semantic neutrality by refuting "such guidance." That said, we fully stand by our story, and now that we have engaged the Dallas Fed we would like to ask several very important follow up questions, to probe deeper into a matter that is of significant public interest as well as to clear up any potential confusion as to just what "guidance" the Fed is referring to. www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-18/fed-responds-zero-hedge-here-are-some-follow-questions
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 18, 2016 18:53:37 GMT -5
four from NC Renegade... ncrenegade.com/editorial/wells-fargo-is-bad-but-citi-is-worse/Wells Fargo Is Bad, But Citi Is WorseEarlier we reported that Wells Fargo may have an energy problem because as CFO John Shrewsbury revealed, of the $17 billion in energy exposure, “most of it” was junk rated. But, while one can speculate what the terminal cumulative losses, cumulative defaults and loss severities on this loan book will be, at least Wells was honest enough to reveal its energy-related loan loss estimate: it was $1.2 billion, or 7% of total – as Mike Mayo pointed out, one of the highest on the street. Whether it is high, or low, is anyone’s guess, but at least Wells disclosed it. Citi did not. ncrenegade.com/editorial/the-financial-apocalypse-accelerates-as-middle-east-stocks-crash-to-begin-the-week/The Financial Apocalypse Accelerates As Middle East Stocks Crash To Begin The WeekIt looks like it is going to be another chaotic week for global financial markets. On Sunday, news that Iran plans to dramatically ramp up oil production sent stocks plunging all across the Middle East. Stocks in Kuwait were down 3.1 percent, stocks in Saudi Arabia plummeted 5.4 percent, and stocks in Qatar experienced a mammoth 7 percent decline. And of course all of this comes in the context of a much larger long-term decline for Middle Eastern stocks. At this point, Saudi Arabian stocks are down more than 50 percent from their 2014 highs. Needless to say, a lot of very wealthy people in Saudi Arabia are getting very nervous. Could you imagine waking up someday and realizing that more than half of your fortune had been wiped out? Things aren’t that bad in the U.S. quite yet, but it looks like another rough week could be ahead. The Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are all down at least 12 percent from their 52-week highs, and the Russell 2000 is already in bear market territory. Hopefully this week will not be as bad as last week, but events are starting to move very rapidly now. ncrenegade.com/editorial/negative-oil-prices-arrive-koch-brothers-refinery-pays-0-50-for-north-dakota-crude/Negative Oil Prices Arrive: Koch Brothers’ Refinery “Pays” -$0.50 For North Dakota CrudeDo you have some extra space in your garage or attic? Or perhaps you own an oil tanker you aren’t currently using. Or maybe you have a storage unit that’s got a little extra room next to an old mattress and box springs. If so, you may want to call up oil producers in North Dakota and ask if they’d care to send you some free oil, because the crude glut is now so acute that the Koch brothers are actually charging $0.50/bbl to take low grade oil at their Flint Hills Resources refining arm. ncrenegade.com/editorial/italian-banks-collapse-short-sales-banned-as-loan-loss-fears-mount/Italian Banks Collapse, Short Sales Banned As Loan Loss Fears MountItalian bank stocks are crashing (with BMPS down 40% year-to-date) as Reuters reports that investors are growing increasingly nervous about how the sector will cope with lower interest rates and a 200 billion euro ($218 billion) pile of loans that are unlikely to be repaid. The broad banking sector is down 4% with stocks suspended, and in light of this bloodbath, Italian regulators have decided in their wisdom, to ban short-selling of some bank stocks (which has driven hedgers into the CDS market, spking BMPS credit risk). Italy’s banking index was down over 4 percent with shares in several lenders, including the country’s biggest retail bank Intesa Sanpaolo and the third biggest lender Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, suspended from trading after heavy losses.
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 22, 2016 11:23:57 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/a-run-on-the-banks-begins-in-italy-as-italian-banking-stocks-collapse/A Run On The Banks Begins In Italy As Italian Banking Stocks CollapseThe Italian financial meltdown that we have been waiting for has finally arrived. For quite a long time I have been warning my readers to watch Italy, and now people are starting to understand why. Italian banking stocks continued their collapse for a fifth consecutive day on Wednesday, and nervous Italians are beginning to quietly pull large amounts of money out of the banks. In particular, Monte dei Paschi is a complete and utter basket case at this point. A staggering one-third of their loans are “non-performing”, and the stock price has fallen a staggering 57 percent since 2016 began. Monte dei Paschi is going to need a major bailout, and the same thing could be said about almost all of the largest Italian banks. But where is the money going to come from? As rumors of trouble at Monte dei Paschi spread, Italians are getting money out of the bank while they still can.
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 25, 2016 18:48:10 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/texas-economy-collapses-dallas-fed-survey-crashes-to-6-year-lows-as-d-word-is-uttered/Texas Economy Collapses – Dallas Fed Survey Crashes To 6-Year Lows As “D” Word Is UtteredFor the 13th month in a row, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook was contractionary with a stunning -34.6 print following December’s already disastrous collapse back to -20.1, post-crisis lows. With “hope” having plunged back into negative territory (-2.2) in December, January saw a complete collapse to -24.0 as one respondent exclaimed, “we expect the continued depression in the oil and gas industry to negatively impact our customer base and result in significant demand reduction.”
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 25, 2016 23:25:30 GMT -5
h/t WRSA www.city-journal.org/2016/26_1_pensions.htmlScary Pension MathEven after six years of a bull market, state and local governments owe at least $1 trillion. Winter 2016 Since early 2009, Wall Street has enjoyed the third-longest bull market in history. Catalyzed by super-low interest rates, the S&P 500 has risen more than 200 percent, helping inject life into portfolios that had suffered tough losses in the crash that had begun in late 2007. Among the beneficiaries were state and municipal pension funds, which the Great Recession had hit particularly hard, leaving many of the systems drowning in debt. Yet the real news about the bull market may be how little these giant retirement systems have recovered. In July, with stocks climbing to a six-year peak, the Pew Charitable Trusts reported that state and local pension debt nationally had shrunk little since 2009. “The gap between the pension benefits that state governments have promised workers and the funding to pay for them remains significant,” the report observed. The situation only worsened as news began leaking out last summer that pension funds had notched mediocre returns for the fiscal year ending June 30, taking on even more debt. Then the market deep-dived in August, and Fitch Ratings issued a stark warning that public-pension funding “has barely improved since pre-recession highs.” A big reason: millions of government workers keep racking up new pension credits every working day
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Post by avordvet on Jan 26, 2016 5:26:13 GMT -5
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 26, 2016 19:12:46 GMT -5
ncrenegade.com/editorial/comex-snaps-gold-dilution-hits-record-542-oz-for-every-ounce-of-physical/Comex Snaps: Gold Dilution Hits Record 542 Oz For Every Ounce Of PhysicalMeanwhile, the aggregate gold open interest remained largely unchanged, at just about 40 million ounces. This means that the ratio which we have been carefully tracking since August 2015 when it first blew out, namely the “coverage ratio” that shows the total number of gold claims relative to the physical gold that “backs” such potential delivery requests, – or simply said physical-to-paper gold dilution – just exploded. As the chart below shows – which is disturbing without any further context – the 40 million ounces of gold open interest and the record low 74 thousand ounces of registered gold imply that as of Monday’s close there was a whopping 542 ounces in potential paper claims to every ounces of physical gold. Call it a 0.2% dilution factor.
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 31, 2016 20:06:20 GMT -5
While tis news is not good I have to admit I do not frequent most of these stores and even Wal Mart only when I have to. ncrenegade.com/editorial/retail-apocalypse-2016-brings-empty-shelves-and-store-closings-all-across-america/Retail Apocalypse: 2016 Brings Empty Shelves And Store Closings All Across AmericaMajor retailers in the United States are shutting down hundreds of stores, and shoppers are reporting alarmingly bare shelves in many retail locations that are still open all over the country. It appears that the retail apocalypse that made so many headlines in 2015 has gone to an entirely new level as we enter 2016. As economic activity slows down and Internet retailers capture more of the market, brick and mortar retailers are cutting their losses. This is especially true in areas that are on the lower portion of the income scale. In impoverished urban centers all over the nation, it is not uncommon to find entire malls that have now been completely abandoned. It has been estimated that there is about a billion square feet of retail space sitting empty in this country, and this crisis is only going to get worse as the retail apocalypse accelerates. We always get a wave of store closings after the holiday shopping season, but this year has been particularly active. The following are just a few of the big retailers that have already made major announcements… -Wal-Mart is closing 269 stores, including 154 inside the United States. -K-Mart is closing down more than two dozen stores over the next several months. -J.C. Penney will be permanently shutting down 47 more stores after closing a total of 40 stores in 2015. -Macy’s has decided that it needs to shutter 36 stores and lay off approximately 2,500 employees. -The Gap is in the process of closing 175 stores in North America. -Aeropostale is in the process of closing 84 stores all across America. -Finish Line has announced that 150 stores will be shutting down over the next few years. -Sears has shut down about 600 stores over the past year or so, but sales at the stores that remain open continue to fall precipitously. But these store closings are only part of the story. All over the country, shoppers are noticing bare shelves and alarmingly low inventory levels. This is happening even at the largest and most prominent retailers.
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Post by Michael Downing on Jan 31, 2016 20:09:00 GMT -5
h/t N C Renegade www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/report-store-inventory-levels-reduced-nationwide-stock-up-now-while-you-can_01292016Report: Store Inventory Levels Reduced Nationwide: “Stock Up Now While You Can!”Sometimes good comments are worth an entire article. This author is a big believer in the fostering of good, intelligent dialogues with commenters on these various alternative media sites. We all have the ability (with comments) to function in the manner of unofficial reporters. The nation is huge; however, the distance is nominal and the situations that arise in the nation as a whole can be chronicled and reported by we, the average citizens. The comments and interactions are a means to that end. In this light, I wish to ask you, the Readership to report on this important topic in order to present others with the situations taking place in their locales. The topic referred to being declining inventories and a lack of purchases to meet with customer (I despise the word “consumers”) needs in terms of foodstuffs and nondurable goods. I came across two excellent comments upon Steve Quayle’s website that bear reading, as these are two people with experience in retail marketing, inventory, ordering, and purchases. Take a look at these: #1 (From DJ, January 24, 2016) “Steve- [Regarding the] alerts about the current state of the RR industry. This is in line with what I’ve been noticing as I visited our local/regional grocery store, Walmart, and Target this week in WI. I worked in big box retail for 20 years specializing in Inventory Management. These stores are all using computerized inventory management systems that monitor and automatically replenish inventory when levels/shelf stock get low. This prevents “out of stocks” and lost sales. These companies rely on the ability to replenish inventory quickly from regional warehouses. As I shopped this week and looked at inventory levels I was shocked. There were numerous (above and beyond acceptable levels) out of stocks across category lines at all three retailers. And even where inventory was on the shelf, the overall levels were noticeably reduced. Based on my experience, working for two of these three organizations in store management, they have drastically/intentionally reduced their inventory levels. This is either due to financial stresses/poor sales effecting their ability to acquire new inventory, or it could be the result of what was mentioned earlier regarding the transporting of goods to these regional warehouses. Either way this doesn’t bode well for the what’s to come. Stock up now while you can!” #2 (From a Commenter following up #1 who didn’t provide a name, January 26, 2016) “I’d like to tailgate on the SQ Alert “based on my experience…” regarding stock levels in big box stores. This weekend we were in two such stores, each in fairly isolated communities which are easily the communities’ best source for acquiring grocery items in quantity. I myself worked in retail (meat) for thirty years so I know exactly what a well-stocked store looks like, understand the key categories and category drivers, and how shelves are stocked and displays are built to drive sales and profits. I also understand supply chain and distribution methodologies quite well. Each of the stores we were in were woefully under-stocked. This time of year-the few weeks following the holidays-is usually big business in groceries and low stock levels suggest either poor ordering at the store level, poor purchasing at the distribution level or a purposeful desire to be under-stocked. Anyone familiar with the retail grocery industry is also familiar with how highly touted “the big box store’s” infrastructure is. They know exactly when demand is high and for what items and in what quantities. It is very unlikely that both stores somehow got “surprised” by unusually high demand. It is reasonable then to imagine that low stock levels in rural areas with few options is a purposed endeavor to assure that both the budget conscious and the folks in more remote areas are not fully able to load up their pantries. Simply put I believe the major retailer in question is doing their part to limit the ability of rural America to be sufficiently prepared. Nevertheless, we are wise to do our best to keep ahead of the curve. God bless your efforts, Steve.” Now, both of these two guys have a lot of experience regarding inventory and supply at the retail level. The comments fall upon the heels of the railroads in the U.S. suffering declines in revenue to match a corresponding decline in the shipments of goods and containers. As of this writing, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is down to 317; this alone should be substantial cause for alarm. We are seeing supplies disappear in the stores because of the plummeting BDI and the oil companies defaulting due to the plunging price of crude.
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Post by avordvet on Feb 2, 2016 13:55:16 GMT -5
BREAKING NEWS: COMEX Registered Gold Inventories Plummet 73% In One DayBy Steve St. Angelo, 30 Jan 2016 Looks like something big is about to take place on the Comex as Registered Gold inventories declined a whopping 73% in one day. This is a very suprising update as Comex Gold inventories haven’t experienced much movement over the past few months. Well, this all changed today as a stunning 201,345 oz (73%) of the total 275,325 oz of Registered Gold was transferred to the Eligible Category today: www.sprottmoney.com/blog/breaking-news-comex-registered-gold-inventories-plummet.html
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