Abdullah Dead, ISIS has an opportunity to flip the Kingdom
Jan 23, 2015 7:02:08 GMT -5
Post by Michael Downing on Jan 23, 2015 7:02:08 GMT -5
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Abdullah is Dead. ISIS has an opportunity to flip the Kingdom. Here's how.
Last week I wrote that ISIS would attack Saudi Arabia this spring. This week the opportunity to attack with a high likelihood of success arrived: The King of Saudi Arabia died today. Unfortunately for the Saudi's, King Abdulla died before his Kingdom's gambit to gain control of ISIS paid off. Here's what they were trying to do but failed to pull off in time:
•Saudi Arabia has been pumping oil like crazy to drive the price of oil down. It worked. Prices dropped. Lower oil prices are undercuting the funding ISIS gets from its illicit oil sales across the region.
•Given time, the Saudis believed that this reduction in funding from oil sales would eventually force ISIS to approach Saudi Arabia for financial support. When it did ask for financial help, the Kingdom would be able to gain the leverage necessary to neutralize the threat it posed (as it did with al Qaeda decades earlier).
•Needless to say, this gambit didn't work. ISIS proved much more resilient financially than al Qaeda and other non-state groups are. ISIS has many, many more sources of income than donations from sympathisers and oil sales.
The failure of this gambit means that with the death of the King, ISIS may have a golden opportunity to pivot south to take Mecca and Medina. A southern pivot would capitalize on the increased fragility (of an already fragile country) caused by the succession. It would also allow ISIS to continue the its impressive string of victories in the field. However, this won't be a conventional war. It's going to be an open source war to win a moral victory.
Abdullah is Dead. ISIS has an opportunity to flip the Kingdom. Here's how.
Last week I wrote that ISIS would attack Saudi Arabia this spring. This week the opportunity to attack with a high likelihood of success arrived: The King of Saudi Arabia died today. Unfortunately for the Saudi's, King Abdulla died before his Kingdom's gambit to gain control of ISIS paid off. Here's what they were trying to do but failed to pull off in time:
•Saudi Arabia has been pumping oil like crazy to drive the price of oil down. It worked. Prices dropped. Lower oil prices are undercuting the funding ISIS gets from its illicit oil sales across the region.
•Given time, the Saudis believed that this reduction in funding from oil sales would eventually force ISIS to approach Saudi Arabia for financial support. When it did ask for financial help, the Kingdom would be able to gain the leverage necessary to neutralize the threat it posed (as it did with al Qaeda decades earlier).
•Needless to say, this gambit didn't work. ISIS proved much more resilient financially than al Qaeda and other non-state groups are. ISIS has many, many more sources of income than donations from sympathisers and oil sales.
The failure of this gambit means that with the death of the King, ISIS may have a golden opportunity to pivot south to take Mecca and Medina. A southern pivot would capitalize on the increased fragility (of an already fragile country) caused by the succession. It would also allow ISIS to continue the its impressive string of victories in the field. However, this won't be a conventional war. It's going to be an open source war to win a moral victory.